Is US Economy at Risk of Recession For 2024 Election

Moderator: uncledad

Forum rules
This is a heavily moderated forum. Should you see a post that is a one line zinger (not related to topic) or it becomes derailed (offshoots of a related topic are fine) or there is a post simply breaking the TOS, please notify a mod/admin and it will be removed.
uncledad
Posts: 5459
Joined: August 29th, 2020, 9:44 pm
Has thanked: 1446 times
Been thanked: 504 times

Is US Economy at Risk of Recession For 2024 Election

Unread post by uncledad »

Image

High inflation and the Fed’s rapid increase in interest rates, seemed a perfect storm for a recession. Larry Summers claimed that to bring inflation down would require 7% unemployment. But, come November will this low-inflationary growth be maintained or will the long-predicted recession finally arrive? There are seven factors which put the US economy at Risk of a downturn.

Image

Economies have a certain momentum effect. The past growth will continue to boost investment and spending throughout the year. However, there is limited growth for a further surge in spending. Saving rates have fallen and the economy is closer to balancing supply and demand. In the absence of an unexpected supply shock, inflation should continue to fall slowly and remain close to the government’s target. So there is a a good chance the main economic figures will be relatively good in November 2023. But, it is worth bearing in mind, the past few years have shown, that people’s perceptions of the economy may only weakly correlate to what is happening. The inflation shock took time to absorb. Why is the US booming but Germany entering recession. A big factor is that whilst the US runs a deficit, Germany is pursuing austerity.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2150 ... -election/
User avatar
Vercingetorix
Posts: 34970
Joined: August 30th, 2020, 7:23 pm
Has thanked: 1976 times
Been thanked: 3927 times

Re: Is US Economy at Risk of Recession For 2024 Election

Unread post by Vercingetorix »

uncledad wrote: June 10th, 2024, 9:16 am Image

Increasing GDP mostly tied to governemt spending.. Which is also inflationary.
High inflation and the Fed’s rapid increase in interest rates, seemed a perfect storm for a recession. Larry Summers claimed that to bring inflation down would require 7% unemployment.
Recessions are curative. They shouldnt be avoided.
But, come November will this low-inflationary growth be maintained or will the long-predicted recession finally arrive? There are seven factors which put the US economy at Risk of a downturn.
There are certainly NO spending bills in the offing.
Economies have a certain momentum effect. The past growth will continue to boost investment and spending throughout the year. However, there is limited growth for a further surge in spending.
That is if economic models are true, they have been lying for months.
Saving rates have fallen and the economy is closer to balancing supply and demand.
Tha tis only if GDP stagnates. Rising GDP means demand is growiing. Lower unemploymebt means that guture demand grows.

In the absence of an unexpected supply shock, inflation should continue to fall slowly and remain close to the government’s target.
War is a supply shock, foreign aid is a supply shock.
So there is a a good chance the main economic figures will be relatively good in November 2023. But, it is worth bearing in mind, the past few years have shown, that people’s perceptions of the economy may only weakly correlate to what is happening. The inflation shock took time to absorb. Why is the US booming but Germany entering recession. A big factor is that whilst the US runs a deficit, Germany is pursuing austerity.
The people arent believers because you are seeing corporate growth. Inflation
Is a clandestine tax....so the benefits arent necessarily accessible to the lunchbox crowd.

Your site foesnt have good numbers because they.are essentially. Taking implausible data from BLS to make their presumptions.
Post Reply