How Demographic Shifts Fueled by Covid Delivered Midterm Wins for Democrats

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uncledad
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How Demographic Shifts Fueled by Covid Delivered Midterm Wins for Democrats

Unread post by uncledad »

The pandemic continues to haunt Donald Trump and Republicans’ electoral chances — a political sort of long Covid.

According to his own pollsters, the former president’s misguided and unreliable management of the public health crisis cost him the 2020 election.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177 ... 6e8c950000

Data from the U.S. Postal Service and Census Bureau shows how the pandemic drove urban professionals who were able to work remotely — disproportionately Democrats — out of coastal, progressive cities to seek more space or recreational amenities in the nation’s suburbs and Sun Belt. This moved liberals out of electoral districts where Democrats reliably won by large margins into many purple regions that had the potential to swing with just small changes to the map.

And because partisan gerrymanderers carved up new districts before the extent of pandemic mobility data was understood, they could not neutralize the population shifts. And pollsters were none the wiser.

Some of the tightest Senate races took place in Nevada and Arizona, states that the Census Bureau found attracted some of the greatest population growth.

A working paper by Yale researchers recently released by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that far more Republicans are likely dying of Covid than Democrats.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30512

According to the study, which used data from Florida and Ohio counties, registered Republicans and Democrats died of Covid in equal numbers in 2020, but once vaccines became widely available in summer 2021, the number of Republican excess deaths nearly doubled those of Democrats. The disparity grew even wider during the winter of 2021.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... s-00072565
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Re: How Demographic Shifts Fueled by Covid Delivered Midterm Wins for Democrats

Unread post by Vercingetorix »

uncledad wrote: December 8th, 2022, 12:50 pm The pandemic continues to haunt Donald Trump and Republicans’ electoral chances — a political sort of long Covid.

According to his own pollsters, the former president’s misguided and unreliable management of the public health crisis cost him the 2020 election.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177 ... 6e8c950000

Data from the U.S. Postal Service and Census Bureau shows how the pandemic drove urban professionals who were able to work remotely — disproportionately Democrats — out of coastal, progressive cities to seek more space or recreational amenities in the nation’s suburbs and Sun Belt. This moved liberals out of electoral districts where Democrats reliably won by large margins into many purple regions that had the potential to swing with just small changes to the map.

And because partisan gerrymanderers carved up new districts before the extent of pandemic mobility data was understood, they could not neutralize the population shifts. And pollsters were none the wiser.

Some of the tightest Senate races took place in Nevada and Arizona, states that the Census Bureau found attracted some of the greatest population growth.
Sounds nice, but why did the vote counts for minor parties spring back to normal in 2022 from being cut in half for 2020. Incomplete analysis at best. Also doesn't make sense that this didn't help in Florida where its became redder.
A working paper by Yale researchers recently released by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that far more Republicans are likely dying of Covid than Democrats.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w305

According to the study, which used data from Florida and Ohio counties, registered Republicans and Democrats died of Covid in equal numbers in 2020, but once vaccines became widely available in summer 2021, the number of Republican excess deaths nearly doubled those of Democrats. The disparity grew even wider during the winter of 2021.
It is a working paper so it has tentative data. Since 80% of all the COVID deaths are north of 65, guess they were really old. People don't really die from COVID. This is a working paper but unlikely they are going to get much good data moving forward.
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